Volume 9 / Issue 3 / November 2025
Kabutaulaka, Tarcisius
Wesley-Smith, Terence
ABSTRACT
A seismic shift is underway in global politics as the primacy of the United States (US)—and the Western world in general—faces its most significant challenge since the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago. Propelled by rapid economic growth, command of cuttingedge technologies, and expanding military power, the People’s Republic of China (China) has emerged as a formidable force on the world stage. China is now the largest trading partner for some 120 countries and a significant source of investment capital in the developing world. As its global influence has grown, Beijing has become more assertive in pressing China’s core security interests, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where the US and its allies have long held sway. China’s rise poses a threat to Washington’s long-standing dominance of international institutions and norms, as well as the alliance system that has allowed the US to project power around the globe since the end of World War II.
Friends to all, bound to some: Pacific Island states, security agreements, and the regional order
Powles, Anna
Over the past three years, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji have entered into bilateral security and defence agreements with external partners that, in the case of Papua New Guinea and Fiji, implicitly oblige them to provide support to US forces in the event of military conflict in Asia. Elsewhere in the Pacific, the motivations behind such agreements (like the 2024 Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union) are twofold: external partners are seeking to secure support from allies and partners in the Pacific as strategic competition intensifies; and Pacific countries view the agreements, several of which include security assistance, as an opportunity to enhance their national security capabilities. What is less clear, however, is how these agreements align with the foreign policy positions, such as non-alignment and “friends to all,” and national security interests of the Pacific signatories. This article presents preliminary research findings drawn from interviews in Papua New Guinea and Fiji with regional leaders and officials since late 2024. It argues that the growing entrenchment of security agreements is creating a strategic alignment dilemma for Pacific Island states, reshaping regional order from one based on collective neutrality to one of differentiated alignment.
The (in)security dilemma: Bilateral security agreements in the Pacific Islands region
McNeill-Stowers, Henrietta
Kant, Romitesh
Security in the Pacific Islands region has long been coordinated through a patchwork of multilateral, minilateral, and bilateral arrangements, agreements, and institutions. However, since 2018, there has been an escalation in bilateral security agreements by many external partners to solidify trust within an uncertain geopolitical environment. These agreements are mired in secrecy and political fallout and are no longer limited to traditional security issues. The proliferation of bilateral security arrangements reveals a (re)configuration of what “security” means in the region. The escalation has created a security dilemma, with the opposite effect of what was intended: insecurity. This article examines recent bilateral security agreements between Pacific Island states and external partners (including China, Australia, and the United States) since 2018, and their domestic and regional consequences.